Use of downscaled climate models to project future coral bleaching in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Report Summary

As coral reef areas become more affected by changing environmental conditions, detailed information about local-scale vulnerability can help managers make the best management decisions to support reef resilience. We developed downscaled climate model projections of the timing of annual severe coral bleaching at local scales. Locations projected to experience annual severe bleaching decades later than others are conservation priorities. Our results and output materials, including publications, workshop and project reports, and coral bleaching onset web maps are being widely used locally, nationally, and internationally to determine management plans and priorities.

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This research feature was produced by the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center.

Related Publications

R. Van Hooidonk, J. Maynard, J. Tamelander, J. Gove, G. Ahmadia, L. Raymundo, G. Williams, S.F. Heron, and S. Planes, 2016|Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement | Nature | https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39666

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