PEAC’s Seasonal Rainfall and Sea Level Outlooks

Every month, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center in Honolulu produces a Seasonal Rainfall Outlook and a Seasonal Sea Level Outlook for Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands.

Hawaii_Island_Wasif_Malik_Mar2012

Akaka Falls waterfall on Hawai‘i Island. Photo © Wasif Malik, 2012. Used under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

PEAC’s Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast. The PEAC Outlook uses data from 7 models (UKMONASA GMAOECMWFIRICPNCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled ModelUH/IPRC PRIDE and APCC MME) to produce a probabilistic forecast rainfall for the upcoming three months for 14 locations throughout Hawai‘i and the USAPI.

The Seasonal Sea Level Outlook gives a forecast for the average and maximum sea level anomaly for the current three-month period and the monthly anomaly observed in the previous period.