Developing high-resolution rainfall change scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands using statistical downscaling

Summary

Future changes in rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands will affect natural habitats and hydrology as well as human agriculture, drinking water access, and development. Accurate rainfall projections at appropriate scales will be vital for adaptation and resilience planning. Our work suggests that there will be a general drying trend with large amounts of local and seasonal variation, and an increasing contrast between wet and dry regions on each island, and provides projections at a much finer spatial scale than has historically been available. This represents a basis for ecological impact modelers and natural resource managers to conceptualize scenarios for climate adaptation.

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This research feature was produced by the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center.

Related Publications

A.G. Frazier and T. W. Giambelluca, 2017 |Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012| International Journal of Climatology | https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4862

O.E. Timm, T.W. Giambelluca, and H.F. Diaz, 2015 | Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections | JGR: Atmosphereshttps://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022059

O.E. Timm, M. Takahashi, T.W. Giambelluca, and H.F. Diaz, 2013 | On the relation between large-scale circulation pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes | JGR: Atmosphereshttps://doi:10.1002/jgrd.50314 

link_icon Future rainfall projections for Hawai‘i | Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative

Featured photo: Akaka Falls stream, Hawai’i Island. Credit: Sarah Nash