Future Rainfall Projections for Hawai’i

Summary

How much rain, and where, will the Hawaiian Islands receive in the future? “Downscaling” global climate models to accurately reflect local climate is a new science and the best methods are still being determined. This project uses a statistical downscaling approach (as opposed to the dynamical modeling being used in another project) to project rainfall for the state of Hawai‘i during the 21st century. Using the new IPCC scenarios for mid-century and late-century time periods, this project estimates the seasonal mean rainfall anomalies and found that leeward areas will receive much less rainfall in the future.

 Final Report

 Factsheet

 Data Served in Science Base

Related Publications

Timm, Giambelluca, and Diaz 2015 | Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections  | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Correction to the article download here

Timm, Giambelluca, and Diaz 2014 | Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022059

Timm, Diaz, Giambelluca, and Takahashi 2011 | Projection of changes in the frequency of heavy rain events over Hawaii based on leading Pacific climate modes | Journal of Geophysical ResearchDOI: 10.1029/2010JD014923